Model: LANL - DBM

    Name: Dynamic Bayesian Model with a hierarchical discrepancy, 2017/2018 version
    Abbreviation: DBM
    Owner: khoa
    Team name: LANL
    Description: Team name: LANL
    Team members: Dave Osthus, Reid Priedhorsky, Jim Gattiker, Sara Del Valle
    Data source(s): ILI Net
    Methods: The DBM combines an SIR model with a flexible discrepancy function in a Bayesian framework. Methodological details can be found here: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1708.09481.pdf. To produce forecasts, the DBM requires historical data, ideally from EW 40 of 1997 through the forecast date, sans the H1N1 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 seasons. To our knowledge, the earliest date on which all historical data is available is EW 52 of 2013 through the DELPHI API. For flu seasons 2014/2015, 2015/2016, and 2016/2017, all forecasts strictly respect the backfill issue (i.e., all data used in the fitting of the DBM was pulled on or before the forecast date). For seasons 2010/2011 through 2013/2014, historical data from 1997, EW 40 through 2008, EW 25 was pulled on 2013, EW 52 (i.e., NOT strictly obeying the backfill issue) while all other used data was pulled on or before the forecast date.
    Contributors:
    License: Other License
    Notes:
    Citation: None
    Methods: None
    Home: https://github.com/FluSightNetwork/cdc-flusight-ensemble/tree/first-papers/model-forecasts/real-time-component-models/LANL_DBM
    Auxiliary data: (No URL)

    Forecasts (28)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time Issued at Version
    2020-05-18 (No data)
    2020-05-11 (No data)
    2020-05-04 (No data)
    2020-04-27 (No data)
    2020-04-20 (No data)
    2020-04-13 (No data)
    2020-04-06 (No data)
    2020-03-30 (No data)
    2020-03-23 (No data)
    2020-03-16 (No data)
    2020-03-09 (No data)
    2020-03-02 (No data)
    2020-02-24 (No data)
    2020-02-17 (No data)
    2020-02-10 (No data)
    2020-02-03 (No data)
    2020-01-27 (No data)
    2020-01-20 (No data)
    2020-01-13 (No data)
    2020-01-06 (No data)
    2019-12-30 (No data)
    2019-12-23 (No data)
    2019-12-16 (No data)
    2019-12-09 (No data)
    2019-12-02 (No data)
    2019-11-25 (No data)
    2019-11-18 (No data)
    2019-11-11 (No data)
    2019-11-04 (No data)
    2019-10-28 (No data)
    2019-10-21 (No data)
    2019-10-14 (No data)
    2019-10-07 (No data)
    2019-09-30 (No data)
    2019-05-20 (No data)
    2019-05-13 (No data)
    2019-05-06 (No data)
    2019-04-29 (No data)
    2019-04-22 (No data)
    2019-04-15 (No data)
    2019-04-08 (No data)
    2019-04-01 (No data)
    2019-03-25 (No data)
    2019-03-18 (No data)
    2019-03-11 (No data)
    2019-03-04 (No data)
    2019-02-25 (No data)
    2019-02-18 (No data)
    2019-02-11 (No data)
    2019-02-04 (No data)
    2019-01-28 (No data)
    2019-01-21 (No data)
    2019-01-14 (No data)
    2019-01-07 (No data)
    2018-12-31 (No data)
    2018-12-24 (No data)
    2018-12-17 (No data)
    2018-12-10 (No data)
    2018-12-03 (No data)
    2018-11-26 (No data)
    2018-11-19 (No data)
    2018-11-12 (No data)
    2018-11-05 (No data)
    2018-10-29 (No data)
    2018-10-22 (No data)
    2018-10-15 (No data)
    2018-10-08 (No data)
    2018-10-01 (No data)
    2018-04-30 EW18-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2020-03-25 01:03:50 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-04-23 EW17-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2020-03-25 01:03:49 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-04-16 EW16-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2020-03-25 01:03:48 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-04-09 EW15-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2020-03-25 01:03:46 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-04-02 EW14-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2020-03-25 01:03:44 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-03-26 EW13-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2020-03-25 01:03:43 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-03-19 EW12-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2020-03-25 01:03:41 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-03-12 EW11-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2020-03-25 01:03:40 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-03-05 EW10-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2020-03-25 01:03:39 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-02-26 EW09-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2020-03-25 01:03:37 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-02-19 EW08-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2020-03-25 01:03:36 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-02-12 EW07-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2020-03-25 01:03:33 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-02-05 EW06-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2020-03-25 01:03:32 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-01-29 EW05-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2020-03-25 01:03:30 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-01-22 EW04-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2020-03-25 01:03:29 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-01-15 EW03-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2020-03-25 01:03:27 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-01-08 EW02-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2020-03-25 01:03:26 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-01-01 EW01-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2020-03-25 01:03:24 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2017-12-25 EW52-2017-LANL_DBM.csv 2020-03-25 01:03:22 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2017-12-18 EW51-2017-LANL_DBM.csv 2020-03-25 01:03:21 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2017-12-11 EW50-2017-LANL_DBM.csv 2020-03-25 01:03:19 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2017-12-04 EW49-2017-LANL_DBM.csv 2020-03-25 01:03:18 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2017-11-27 EW48-2017-LANL_DBM.csv 2020-03-25 01:03:16 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2017-11-20 EW47-2017-LANL_DBM.csv 2020-03-25 01:03:14 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2017-11-13 EW46-2017-LANL_DBM.csv 2020-03-25 01:03:11 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2017-11-06 EW45-2017-LANL_DBM.csv 2020-03-25 01:03:09 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2017-10-30 EW44-2017-LANL_DBM.csv 2020-03-25 01:03:06 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2017-10-23 EW43-2017-LANL_DBM.csv 2020-03-25 01:03:02 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC