Model: ReichLab - SARIMA2

    Name: SARIMA model with seasonal differencing
    Abbreviation: SARIMA2
    Owner: khoa
    Team name: ReichLab
    Description: Team name: ReichLab
    Team members: Evan L. Ray, Nicholas G. Reich
    Data source(s): ilinet
    Methods: A seasonal ARIMA model is fit using the auto.arima function in the forecast package for R. The data are log-transformed, any infinite or missing values after the transformation are linearly imputed, and a first-order seasonal difference (at lag 52 weeks) is taken before fitting the model. A separate model is fit for each region. Through iterating the one-step-ahead predictions, this model fit yields a joint predictive distribution for incidence in all remaining weeks of the season. Appropriate integrals of this joint distribution are calculated via Monte Carlo integration to obtain predictions for the seasonal quantities. For making prospective predictions for each season, only data before the start of that season were used in fitting model parameters. All code used in estimation and prediction is available at https://github.com/reichlab/2017-2018-cdc-flu-contest
    Contributors:
    License: Other License
    Notes:
    Citation: None
    Methods: None
    Home: https://github.com/FluSightNetwork/cdc-flusight-ensemble/tree/master/model-forecasts/real-time-component-models/ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE
    Auxiliary data: (No URL)

    Forecasts (77)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time Issued at Version
    2020-05-18 (No data)
    2020-05-11 (No data)
    2020-05-04 (No data)
    2020-04-27 (No data)
    2020-04-20 (No data)
    2020-04-13 (No data)
    2020-04-06 (No data)
    2020-03-30 (No data)
    2020-03-23 (No data)
    2020-03-16 (No data)
    2020-03-09 (No data)
    2020-03-02 (No data)
    2020-02-24 EW09-2020-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv 2020-03-10 23:58:19 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-02-17 EW08-2020-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv 2020-03-10 23:57:53 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-02-10 EW07-2020-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv 2020-03-10 23:57:25 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-02-03 EW06-2020-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv 2020-03-10 23:56:57 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-01-27 EW05-2020-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv 2020-03-10 23:56:30 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-01-20 EW04-2020-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv 2020-03-10 23:56:03 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-01-13 EW03-2020-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv 2020-03-10 23:55:38 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-01-06 EW02-2020-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv 2020-03-10 23:55:12 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-12-30 EW01-2020-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv 2020-03-10 23:54:46 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-12-23 EW52-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv 2020-03-10 23:54:18 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-12-16 EW51-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv 2020-03-10 23:53:54 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-12-09 EW50-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv 2020-03-10 23:53:28 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-12-02 EW49-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv 2020-03-10 23:53:03 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-11-25 EW48-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv 2020-03-10 23:52:40 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-11-18 EW47-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv 2020-03-10 23:52:18 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-11-11 EW46-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv 2020-03-10 23:51:53 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-11-04 EW45-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv 2020-03-10 23:51:31 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-10-28 EW44-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv 2020-03-10 23:51:07 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-10-21 EW43-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv 2020-03-10 23:50:45 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-10-14 EW42-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv 2020-03-10 23:50:24 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-10-07 (No data)
    2019-09-30 (No data)
    2019-05-20 (No data)
    2019-05-13 (No data)
    2019-05-06 (No data)
    2019-04-29 EW18-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-25 01:44:57 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-04-22 EW17-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-25 01:44:56 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-04-15 EW16-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-25 01:44:55 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-04-08 EW15-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-25 01:44:54 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-04-01 EW14-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-25 01:44:53 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-03-25 EW13-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-25 01:44:51 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-03-18 EW12-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-25 01:44:50 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-03-11 EW11-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-25 01:44:49 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-03-04 EW10-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-25 01:44:48 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-02-25 EW09-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-25 01:44:47 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-02-18 EW08-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-25 01:44:45 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-02-11 EW07-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-25 01:44:44 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-02-04 EW06-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-25 01:44:43 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-01-28 EW05-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-25 01:44:42 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-01-21 EW04-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-25 01:44:40 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-01-14 EW03-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-25 01:44:39 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-01-07 EW02-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-25 01:44:38 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-12-31 EW01-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-25 01:44:36 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-12-24 EW52-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-25 01:44:35 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-12-17 EW51-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-25 01:44:33 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-12-10 EW50-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-25 01:44:32 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-12-03 EW49-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-25 01:44:30 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-11-26 EW48-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-25 01:44:29 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-11-19 EW47-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-25 01:44:27 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-11-12 EW46-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-25 01:44:26 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-11-05 EW45-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-25 01:44:24 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-10-29 EW44-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-25 01:44:23 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-10-22 EW43-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-25 01:44:22 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-10-15 EW42-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-25 01:44:21 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-10-08 (No data)
    2018-10-01 (No data)
    2018-04-30 EW18-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-12 03:33:07 UTC 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-04-23 EW17-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-12 03:33:06 UTC 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-04-16 EW16-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-12 03:33:05 UTC 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-04-09 EW15-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-12 03:33:04 UTC 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-04-02 EW14-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-12 03:33:03 UTC 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-03-26 EW13-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-12 03:33:02 UTC 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-03-19 EW12-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-12 03:33:01 UTC 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-03-12 EW11-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-12 03:33:00 UTC 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-03-05 EW10-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-12 03:32:58 UTC 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-02-26 EW09-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-12 03:32:57 UTC 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-02-19 EW08-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-12 03:32:56 UTC 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-02-12 EW07-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-12 03:32:55 UTC 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-02-05 EW06-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-12 03:32:54 UTC 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-01-29 EW05-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-12 03:32:52 UTC 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-01-22 EW04-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-12 03:32:51 UTC 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-01-15 EW03-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-12 03:32:49 UTC 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-01-08 EW02-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-12 03:32:48 UTC 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-01-01 EW01-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-12 03:32:47 UTC 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC
    2017-12-25 EW52-2017-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-12 03:32:46 UTC 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC
    2017-12-18 EW51-2017-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-12 03:32:45 UTC 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC
    2017-12-11 EW50-2017-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-12 03:32:43 UTC 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC
    2017-12-04 EW49-2017-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-12 03:32:42 UTC 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC
    2017-11-27 EW48-2017-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-12 03:32:41 UTC 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC
    2017-11-20 EW47-2017-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-12 03:32:40 UTC 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC
    2017-11-13 EW46-2017-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-12 03:32:39 UTC 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC
    2017-11-06 EW45-2017-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-12 03:32:38 UTC 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC
    2017-10-30 EW44-2017-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-12 03:32:37 UTC 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC
    2017-10-23 EW43-2017-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv 2020-03-12 03:32:36 UTC 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC