| Name: | Kernel Conditional Density Estimation, post-hoc backfill adjustment |
|---|---|
| Abbreviation: | KCDE_PHB |
| Owner: | khoa |
| Team name: | ReichLab |
| Description: | Team name: ReichLab Team members: Evan L. Ray, Graham C. Gibson, Nicholas G. Reich Data source(s): ilinet Methods: Used leave-one-season-out cross-validation in the training phase to estimate 1) parameters of kernel conditional density estimation (KCDE) models for incidence h steps ahead, for h = 1, ..., 35; and 2) parameters of a copula C^H modeling dependence structure across the next H weeks, for H = 2, ..., 35. Together, these yield a joint predictive distribution for incidence in all remaining weeks of the season. Appropriate integrals of this joint distribution are calculated via Monte Carlo integration to obtain predictions for the seasonal quantities. For making prospective predictions for each season, only data before the start of that season were used in fitting model parameters. After predictions are made based on currently available ilinet data, a post-hoc adjustment for backfill is made by sampling possible revisions to data. These adjustments affect forecasts for seasonal targets only. All code used in estimation and prediction is available at https://github.com/reichlab/cdcfluutils and https://github.com/reichlab/cdcfluforecasts |
| Contributors: | |
| License: | Other License |
| Notes: | |
| Citation: | None |
| Methods: | None |
| Home: | https://github.com/FluSightNetwork/cdc-flusight-ensemble/tree/master/model-forecasts/real-time-component-models/ReichLab_kcde_backfill_post_hoc |
| Auxiliary data: | (No URL) |
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| 2020-02-24 | EW09-2020-ReichLab_kcde_backfill_post_hoc.csv | 2020-03-10 23:24:32 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-02-17 | EW08-2020-ReichLab_kcde_backfill_post_hoc.csv | 2020-03-10 23:24:01 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-02-10 | EW07-2020-ReichLab_kcde_backfill_post_hoc.csv | 2020-03-10 23:23:32 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-02-03 | EW06-2020-ReichLab_kcde_backfill_post_hoc.csv | 2020-03-10 23:23:05 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-01-27 | EW05-2020-ReichLab_kcde_backfill_post_hoc.csv | 2020-03-10 23:22:39 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-01-20 | EW04-2020-ReichLab_kcde_backfill_post_hoc.csv | 2020-03-10 23:22:15 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-01-13 | EW03-2020-ReichLab_kcde_backfill_post_hoc.csv | 2020-03-10 23:21:48 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-01-06 | EW02-2020-ReichLab_kcde_backfill_post_hoc.csv | 2020-03-10 23:21:23 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-12-30 | EW01-2020-ReichLab_kcde_backfill_post_hoc.csv | 2020-03-10 23:20:58 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-12-23 | EW52-2019-ReichLab_kcde_backfill_post_hoc.csv | 2020-03-10 23:20:32 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
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| 2019-12-02 | EW49-2019-ReichLab_kcde_backfill_post_hoc.csv | 2020-03-10 23:19:20 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-11-25 | EW48-2019-ReichLab_kcde_backfill_post_hoc.csv | 2020-03-10 23:18:58 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-11-18 | EW47-2019-ReichLab_kcde_backfill_post_hoc.csv | 2020-03-10 23:18:36 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-11-11 | EW46-2019-ReichLab_kcde_backfill_post_hoc.csv | 2020-03-10 23:18:13 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-11-04 | EW45-2019-ReichLab_kcde_backfill_post_hoc.csv | 2020-03-10 23:17:50 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-10-28 | EW44-2019-ReichLab_kcde_backfill_post_hoc.csv | 2020-03-10 23:17:28 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-10-21 | EW43-2019-ReichLab_kcde_backfill_post_hoc.csv | 2020-03-10 23:17:07 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-10-14 | EW42-2019-ReichLab_kcde_backfill_post_hoc.csv | 2020-03-10 23:16:43 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
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