Model: CEPH Lab at Indiana University - CEPH-Rtrend_fluH

    Name: Rtrend FluH
    Abbreviation: CEPH-Rtrend_fluH
    Owner: lshandross
    Team name: CEPH Lab at Indiana University
    Description: A renewal equation method based on Bayesian estimation of Rt from hospitalization data.
    Contributors: Marco Ajelli (Indiana University Bloomington) <majelli@iu.edu>, Paulo C. Ventura (Indiana University Bloomington) <pventura@iu.edu>, Maria Litvinova (Indiana University Bloomington) <malitv@iu.edu>, Allisandra G. Kummer (Indiana University Bloomington) <alkummer@iu.edu>, Alessandro Vespignani (Northeastern University) <a.vespignani@northeastern.edu>
    License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
    Notes: Designated model // Data Inputs: "Daily incident flu hospitalizations, queried through HealthData"
    Citation:
    Methods: Model forecasts are obtained by using a renewal equation based on the estimated net reproduction number Rt. We apply a lowpass filter to the time series of daily hospitalizations, extracting the main trend. We then use MCMC Metropolis-Hastings sampling to estimate the posterior distribution of Rt based on the filtered data, considering an informed prior on Rt based on influenza literature. The estimated Rt in the last weeks of available data is used to forecast Rt in the upcoming weeks, with a drift term proportional to the current incidence. Finally, we use the renewal equation with the posterior distribution and trend of the estimated Rt in the most recent weeks of influenza data.
    Home: https://publichealth.indiana.edu/research/faculty-directory/profile.html?user=majelli
    Auxiliary data: (No URL)

    Forecasts (30)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time Issued at Version
    2024-04-27 forecast-738169779d8c.json 2024-04-25 11:23:16 UTC 2024-04-25 11:23:16 UTC
    2024-04-20 forecast-734e36f80f9c.json 2024-04-18 11:23:09 UTC 2024-04-18 11:23:09 UTC
    2024-04-13 forecast-73e31a7b9364.json 2024-04-12 11:23:07 UTC 2024-04-12 11:23:07 UTC
    2024-04-06 forecast-73a715354ee5.json 2024-04-04 11:23:05 UTC 2024-04-04 11:23:05 UTC
    2024-03-30 forecast-758227ccaae1.json 2024-03-28 11:26:58 UTC 2024-03-28 11:26:58 UTC
    2024-03-23 forecast-755523b93d0b.json 2024-03-21 11:27:00 UTC 2024-03-21 11:27:00 UTC
    2024-03-16 forecast-75a498d6f4.json 2024-03-14 11:25:59 UTC 2024-03-14 11:25:59 UTC
    2024-03-09 forecast-75e272e5617a.json 2024-03-07 11:26:15 UTC 2024-03-07 11:26:15 UTC
    2024-03-02 forecast-75202ca8e950.json 2024-03-01 15:34:08 UTC 2024-03-01 15:34:08 UTC
    2024-06-01 (No data)
    2024-05-25 (No data)
    2024-05-18 (No data)
    2024-05-11 (No data)
    2024-05-04 forecast-73ae6a9fa4ab.json 2024-05-02 11:23:32 UTC 2024-05-02 11:23:32 UTC
    2024-02-24 forecast-74e71454f955.json 2024-02-22 11:25:42 UTC 2024-02-22 11:25:42 UTC
    2024-02-17 forecast-75474d34d406.json 2024-02-15 11:25:26 UTC 2024-02-15 11:25:26 UTC
    2024-02-10 forecast-74e8135656f5.json 2024-02-08 11:25:59 UTC 2024-02-08 11:25:59 UTC
    2024-02-03 forecast-750e22730df.json 2024-02-02 11:25:02 UTC 2024-02-02 11:25:02 UTC
    2024-01-27 forecast-756e5ae57d0d.json 2024-01-25 11:27:04 UTC 2024-01-25 11:27:04 UTC
    2024-01-20 forecast-74f820dc3da0.json 2024-01-18 11:25:43 UTC 2024-01-18 11:25:43 UTC
    2024-01-13 forecast-752069b5029c.json 2024-01-11 11:25:56 UTC 2024-01-11 11:25:56 UTC
    2024-01-06 forecast-74f92c34b252.json 2024-01-04 11:25:46 UTC 2024-01-04 11:25:46 UTC
    2023-12-30 forecast-74df253b77a.json 2023-12-28 11:25:25 UTC 2023-12-28 11:25:25 UTC
    2023-12-23 forecast-74d159c416ee.json 2023-12-21 11:25:51 UTC 2023-12-21 11:25:51 UTC
    2023-12-16 forecast-75bc7c5608b3.json 2023-12-14 11:25:56 UTC 2023-12-14 11:25:56 UTC
    2023-12-09 forecast-75c6305f26d2.json 2023-12-08 18:53:52 UTC 2023-12-08 18:53:52 UTC
    2023-12-02 forecast-854819a450f1.json 2023-12-07 15:03:34 UTC 2023-12-07 15:03:34 UTC
    2023-11-25 forecast-46005eb72a1d.json 2023-11-28 16:25:02 UTC 2023-11-28 16:25:02 UTC
    2023-11-18 forecast-4600504d0d.json 2023-11-28 16:24:59 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:59 UTC
    2023-11-11 forecast-46006be74066.json 2023-11-28 16:24:57 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:57 UTC
    2023-11-04 forecast-46001ff1636b.json 2023-11-28 16:24:55 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:55 UTC
    2023-10-28 forecast-460017ef707d.json 2023-11-28 16:24:52 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:52 UTC
    2023-10-21 forecast-460047cd9eb.json 2023-11-28 16:24:49 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:49 UTC
    2023-10-14 forecast-4600657864d5.json 2023-11-28 16:24:46 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:46 UTC
    2023-10-07 (No data)