Model: Colombia University - CU-ensemble

    Name: Ensemble
    Abbreviation: CU-ensemble
    Owner: lshandross
    Team name: Colombia University
    Description: An inverse-WIS weighted ensemble of several component models - an SEIRS compartmental model with EAKF, an ARIMA model, a random walk with drift, and the N-HiTS and N-BEATS deep-learning models.
    Contributors: Rami Yaari (Columbia University) <ry2460@cumc.columbia.edu>, Teresa Yamana (Columbia University) <tky2104@cumc.columbia.edu>, Sen Pei (Columbia University) <sp3449@cumc.columbia.edu>, Jeffrey Shaman (Colombia University) <jls106@cumc.columbia.edu>
    License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
    Notes: Designated model // Data inputs: State and national-level daily confirmed influenza hospital admissions, queried using covidcast R package. State and national-level ILINet surveillance data, queried using cdcfluview R package. // Team funding: US NIH grant AI163023 and CDC 75D30122C14289
    Citation:
    Methods: The dynamical model simulates influenza transmission in each state and the US using a humidity-driven SEIRS dynamics. Model variables and parameters are sequentially updated each week using the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter and new observations. Forecasts are generated by integrating the optimized model into the future. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model and baseline models use implementations available in the fable R package (ARIMA and RW, respectively). We employ multivariate versions of N-HiTS and N-BEATS models as implemented in the darts python package, trained on modified state-level ILI data and hospitalization data. To build ensemble, the quantile distributions of the component models are weighted by the sum of inverse-WIS scores, over last 4 weeks. The 4-week window is target and location-specific and are recomputed at each forecast week.
    Home: https://blogs.cuit.columbia.edu/jls106/
    Auxiliary data: (No URL)

    Forecasts (30)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time Issued at Version
    2024-04-27 forecast-73816af203c0.json 2024-04-25 11:23:13 UTC 2024-04-25 11:23:13 UTC
    2024-04-20 forecast-734e5211d2af.json 2024-04-18 11:23:06 UTC 2024-04-18 11:23:06 UTC
    2024-04-13 forecast-73e374d159f8.json 2024-04-12 11:23:04 UTC 2024-04-12 11:23:04 UTC
    2024-04-06 forecast-73a77f3d8960.json 2024-04-04 11:23:02 UTC 2024-04-04 11:23:02 UTC
    2024-03-30 forecast-75827b9d90ad.json 2024-03-28 11:26:55 UTC 2024-03-28 11:26:55 UTC
    2024-03-23 forecast-75556402f962.json 2024-03-21 11:26:58 UTC 2024-03-21 11:26:58 UTC
    2024-03-16 forecast-75a4749404be.json 2024-03-14 11:25:55 UTC 2024-03-14 11:25:55 UTC
    2024-03-09 forecast-75e288b0fae.json 2024-03-07 11:26:11 UTC 2024-03-07 11:26:11 UTC
    2024-03-02 forecast-75205e8a1cec.json 2024-03-01 15:34:04 UTC 2024-03-01 15:34:04 UTC
    2024-06-01 (No data)
    2024-05-25 (No data)
    2024-05-18 (No data)
    2024-05-11 (No data)
    2024-05-04 forecast-73ae63cfa036.json 2024-05-02 11:23:28 UTC 2024-05-02 11:23:28 UTC
    2024-02-24 forecast-74e777974897.json 2024-02-22 11:25:39 UTC 2024-02-22 11:25:39 UTC
    2024-02-17 forecast-75475fc8eec7.json 2024-02-15 11:25:24 UTC 2024-02-15 11:25:24 UTC
    2024-02-10 forecast-74e852d13c71.json 2024-02-08 11:25:56 UTC 2024-02-08 11:25:56 UTC
    2024-02-03 forecast-7500471e984.json 2024-02-01 11:24:37 UTC 2024-02-01 11:24:37 UTC
    2024-01-27 forecast-756e39a3a79.json 2024-01-25 11:27:00 UTC 2024-01-25 11:27:00 UTC
    2024-01-20 forecast-74f820e15f32.json 2024-01-18 11:25:40 UTC 2024-01-18 11:25:40 UTC
    2024-01-13 forecast-752013f2828e.json 2024-01-11 11:25:53 UTC 2024-01-11 11:25:53 UTC
    2024-01-06 forecast-74f94347d235.json 2024-01-04 11:25:43 UTC 2024-01-04 11:25:43 UTC
    2023-12-30 forecast-74df1aca3667.json 2023-12-28 11:25:22 UTC 2023-12-28 11:25:22 UTC
    2023-12-23 forecast-74d16703a502.json 2023-12-21 11:25:48 UTC 2023-12-21 11:25:48 UTC
    2023-12-16 forecast-75bc4019a48b.json 2023-12-14 11:25:53 UTC 2023-12-14 11:25:53 UTC
    2023-12-09 forecast-75c62c070495.json 2023-12-08 18:53:49 UTC 2023-12-08 18:53:49 UTC
    2023-12-02 forecast-86dc7ab92831.json 2023-12-07 15:03:39 UTC 2023-12-07 15:03:39 UTC
    2023-11-25 forecast-406444b43e50.json 2023-11-28 16:25:20 UTC 2023-11-28 16:25:20 UTC
    2023-11-18 forecast-40645c664bd0.json 2023-11-28 16:25:18 UTC 2023-11-28 16:25:18 UTC
    2023-11-11 forecast-4064756c550f.json 2023-11-28 16:25:17 UTC 2023-11-28 16:25:17 UTC
    2023-11-04 forecast-40646d465e00.json 2023-11-28 16:25:15 UTC 2023-11-28 16:25:15 UTC
    2023-10-28 forecast-40646b6c4a89.json 2023-11-28 16:25:12 UTC 2023-11-28 16:25:12 UTC
    2023-10-21 forecast-40645aa357eb.json 2023-11-28 16:25:10 UTC 2023-11-28 16:25:10 UTC
    2023-10-14 forecast-40644e9a580.json 2023-11-28 16:25:07 UTC 2023-11-28 16:25:07 UTC
    2023-10-07 (No data)