Model: FluSight-baseline - FluSight-baseline

    Name: Baseline model using reported weekly admissions
    Abbreviation: FluSight-baseline
    Owner: lshandross
    Team name: FluSight-baseline
    Description: Simple time-series baseline model predicting forward the most recent week of reported laboratory confirmed influenza hospital admissions.
    Contributors: Daniel McDonald (University of British Colombia) <daniel@stat.ubc.ca>, Logan Brooks (UC Berkeley) <lcbrooks@berkeley.edu>, Sarabeth Mathis (CDC) <nqr2@cdc.gov>, Alexander Webber (CDC) <rpe5@cdc.gov>, Rebecca Borchering (CDC) <xhq2@cdc.gov>
    License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
    Notes: NOT a designated model // Data inputs: Weekly incident flu hospitalizations from HealthData. Gov COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries
    Citation:
    Methods: The median prediction at all future horizons is the most recent observed weekly incidence. To get a distribution around the median, we look at how much incidence has changed from week to week in the past, and we allow for the possibility that similar changes will occur again in the future. // In more technical detail, forecasts of incidence are generated through the following procedure: for each location, 1) Calculate first differences of incidence; 2) Collect all first differences and their negatives; 3) For each time step, i) Sample first differences in incidence and add to the most recent observed incidence; ii) Enforce that the median of the predictive distribution for incidence is equal to the most recent observed incidence; iii) truncate the predictive distribution for incidence at 0. // Reimplementation of the 2022-23 baseline model contributed to by Evan L. Ray, Nutcha Wattanachit, and Ryan Tibshirani.
    Home: https://github.com/cdcepi/FluSight-forecast-hub
    Auxiliary data: (No URL)

    Forecasts (30)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time Issued at Version
    2024-04-27 forecast-73816f7869bc.json 2024-04-25 11:23:12 UTC 2024-04-25 11:23:12 UTC
    2024-04-20 forecast-734e534ff987.json 2024-04-18 11:23:05 UTC 2024-04-18 11:23:05 UTC
    2024-04-13 forecast-73f0d12ffad.json 2024-04-13 11:18:59 UTC 2024-04-13 11:18:59 UTC
    2024-04-06 forecast-73a71b4cb288.json 2024-04-04 11:23:01 UTC 2024-04-04 11:23:01 UTC
    2024-03-30 forecast-758241a4a95f.json 2024-03-28 11:26:53 UTC 2024-03-28 11:26:53 UTC
    2024-03-23 forecast-755528e1c5d.json 2024-03-21 11:26:56 UTC 2024-03-21 11:26:56 UTC
    2024-03-16 forecast-75a428e80771.json 2024-03-14 11:25:53 UTC 2024-03-14 11:25:53 UTC
    2024-03-09 forecast-75e2594c15ef.json 2024-03-07 11:26:09 UTC 2024-03-07 11:26:09 UTC
    2024-03-02 forecast-7520631b0e92.json 2024-03-01 15:34:02 UTC 2024-03-01 15:34:02 UTC
    2024-06-01 (No data)
    2024-05-25 (No data)
    2024-05-18 (No data)
    2024-05-11 (No data)
    2024-05-04 forecast-73ae5d7703a3.json 2024-05-02 11:23:27 UTC 2024-05-02 11:23:27 UTC
    2024-02-24 forecast-74e76759438e.json 2024-02-22 11:25:38 UTC 2024-02-22 11:25:38 UTC
    2024-02-17 forecast-754737bb54f1.json 2024-02-15 11:25:23 UTC 2024-02-15 11:25:23 UTC
    2024-02-10 forecast-74e87f8b65a9.json 2024-02-08 11:25:55 UTC 2024-02-08 11:25:55 UTC
    2024-02-03 forecast-750e439e7dfd.json 2024-02-02 11:24:57 UTC 2024-02-02 11:24:57 UTC
    2024-01-27 forecast-756e26358d4e.json 2024-01-25 11:26:58 UTC 2024-01-25 11:26:58 UTC
    2024-01-20 forecast-74f88dba057.json 2024-01-18 11:25:39 UTC 2024-01-18 11:25:39 UTC
    2024-01-13 forecast-752073691716.json 2024-01-11 11:25:51 UTC 2024-01-11 11:25:51 UTC
    2024-01-06 forecast-74f92b4b0b17.json 2024-01-04 11:25:42 UTC 2024-01-04 11:25:42 UTC
    2023-12-30 forecast-74df424a74db.json 2023-12-28 11:25:20 UTC 2023-12-28 11:25:20 UTC
    2023-12-23 forecast-74d179877222.json 2023-12-21 11:25:46 UTC 2023-12-21 11:25:46 UTC
    2023-12-16 forecast-75bc54a19d14.json 2023-12-14 11:25:51 UTC 2023-12-14 11:25:51 UTC
    2023-12-09 forecast-75c6859bf6e.json 2023-12-08 18:53:48 UTC 2023-12-08 18:53:48 UTC
    2023-12-02 forecast-86dc587e189b.json 2023-12-07 15:03:35 UTC 2023-12-07 15:03:35 UTC
    2023-11-25 forecast-406411171aaa.json 2023-11-28 16:25:04 UTC 2023-11-28 16:25:04 UTC
    2023-11-18 forecast-40641d51564f.json 2023-11-28 16:25:01 UTC 2023-11-28 16:25:01 UTC
    2023-11-11 forecast-4064514e502f.json 2023-11-28 16:24:59 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:59 UTC
    2023-11-04 forecast-406464613ef8.json 2023-11-28 16:24:57 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:57 UTC
    2023-10-28 forecast-4064f1b3ded.json 2023-11-28 16:24:54 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:54 UTC
    2023-10-21 forecast-40641449636f.json 2023-11-28 16:24:52 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:52 UTC
    2023-10-14 forecast-406453d7dcd.json 2023-11-28 16:24:50 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:50 UTC
    2023-10-07 (No data)