Model: UMass-Amherst - UMass-flusion

    Name: Ensemble of time series models
    Abbreviation: UMass-flusion
    Owner: lshandross
    Team name: UMass-Amherst
    Description: Ensemble of statistical and machine learning time series models.
    Contributors: Evan Ray (UMass Amherst) <elray@umass.edu>
    License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
    Notes: Designated model // Data inputs: Weekly incident flu hospitalizations from HHS Protect, hospitalizations from FluSurv-NET, and ILI+ obtained by combining ILINet outpatient ILI rates with WHO/NREVSS test positivity rates.
    Citation:
    Methods: 2023-10-14: A linear pool of two sub-ensembles, one fit with all available data and one fit dropping the last data point which may be subject to revisions. Each sub-ensemble is an equally-weighted Vincent median ensemble of three components: 1) an AR(8) model fit only to HHS data on a fourth root scale; 2) a gradient boosting model fit to data from all three sources with uncertainty based on bootstrapping out-of-bag prediction errors; 3) a gradient boosting model fit to all three data sources with quantile regression separately for each quantile level, with predictions sorted to address quantile crossing. // 2023-10-21: Fit only to the data release including data up through the week of 2023-10-14. Dropped bootstrap method, so submission is a quantile averaged ensemble of AR(8) and the gradient boosting model with quantile regression for all quantiles. // 2023-11-25: Data for AK are suspect; low counts, including a reported 0 for Sat Nov 18. Roughly 18-20 reporting facilities per day rather than historical values of 21 or 22. I don't have a principled way to deal with this, so the submission for AK is a linear pool of predictions with and without the last weekly observation.
    Home: https://github.com/reichlab/flusion
    Auxiliary data: (No URL)

    Forecasts (30)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time Issued at Version
    2024-04-27 forecast-738116c53d40.json 2024-04-25 11:22:39 UTC 2024-04-25 11:22:39 UTC
    2024-04-20 forecast-734eb28adcb.json 2024-04-18 11:22:29 UTC 2024-04-18 11:22:29 UTC
    2024-04-13 forecast-73e3419ac112.json 2024-04-12 11:22:49 UTC 2024-04-12 11:22:49 UTC
    2024-04-06 forecast-73a74e84766d.json 2024-04-04 11:22:28 UTC 2024-04-04 11:22:28 UTC
    2024-03-30 forecast-758274ce8ed2.json 2024-03-28 11:26:17 UTC 2024-03-28 11:26:17 UTC
    2024-03-23 forecast-755520d47088.json 2024-03-21 11:26:18 UTC 2024-03-21 11:26:18 UTC
    2024-03-16 forecast-75a43cb69cc1.json 2024-03-14 11:25:10 UTC 2024-03-14 11:25:10 UTC
    2024-03-09 forecast-75e237a3f3f0.json 2024-03-07 11:25:28 UTC 2024-03-07 11:25:28 UTC
    2024-03-02 forecast-752070a80c32.json 2024-03-01 15:33:19 UTC 2024-03-01 15:33:19 UTC
    2024-06-01 (No data)
    2024-05-25 (No data)
    2024-05-18 (No data)
    2024-05-11 (No data)
    2024-05-04 forecast-73ae1be8de7b.json 2024-05-02 11:22:54 UTC 2024-05-02 11:22:54 UTC
    2024-02-24 forecast-74e75f82abb4.json 2024-02-22 11:25:03 UTC 2024-02-22 11:25:03 UTC
    2024-02-17 forecast-75474533d03.json 2024-02-15 11:24:48 UTC 2024-02-15 11:24:48 UTC
    2024-02-10 forecast-74e82f8df56d.json 2024-02-08 11:25:18 UTC 2024-02-08 11:25:18 UTC
    2024-02-03 forecast-750e40ed2cff.json 2024-02-02 11:24:21 UTC 2024-02-02 11:24:21 UTC
    2024-01-27 forecast-756e2cef177c.json 2024-01-25 11:26:12 UTC 2024-01-25 11:26:12 UTC
    2024-01-20 forecast-74f8666a266d.json 2024-01-18 11:25:00 UTC 2024-01-18 11:25:00 UTC
    2024-01-13 forecast-75201876c0c4.json 2024-01-11 11:25:06 UTC 2024-01-11 11:25:06 UTC
    2024-01-06 forecast-74f97f26bea4.json 2024-01-04 11:25:02 UTC 2024-01-04 11:25:02 UTC
    2023-12-30 forecast-74df432934e0.json 2023-12-28 11:24:55 UTC 2023-12-28 11:24:55 UTC
    2023-12-23 forecast-74d1185b9155.json 2023-12-21 11:25:10 UTC 2023-12-21 11:25:10 UTC
    2023-12-16 forecast-75bc34a0b18e.json 2023-12-14 11:25:08 UTC 2023-12-14 11:25:08 UTC
    2023-12-09 forecast-7532797a2eb.json 2023-12-08 14:56:38 UTC 2023-12-08 14:56:38 UTC
    2023-12-02 forecast-65b069d71dcb.json 2023-12-07 15:03:35 UTC 2023-12-07 15:03:35 UTC
    2023-11-25 forecast-44844f366bd6.json 2023-11-28 16:24:38 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:38 UTC
    2023-11-18 forecast-448445cd34ec.json 2023-11-28 16:24:36 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:36 UTC
    2023-11-11 forecast-4484f5f1673.json 2023-11-28 16:24:34 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:34 UTC
    2023-11-04 forecast-448474ab2cb8.json 2023-11-28 16:24:33 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:33 UTC
    2023-10-28 forecast-44845df83888.json 2023-11-28 16:24:31 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:31 UTC
    2023-10-21 forecast-448447de4c49.json 2023-11-28 16:24:29 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:29 UTC
    2023-10-14 forecast-44843e246ade.json 2023-11-28 16:24:27 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:27 UTC
    2023-10-07 (No data)