Model: Robert Walraven - RobertWalraven-ESG

    Name: EmpericalSkewedGaussian
    Abbreviation: RobertWalraven-ESG
    Owner: epiforecasts
    Team name: Robert Walraven
    Description: Multiple skewed gaussian distribution peaks fit to raw data
    Contributors: Robert Walraven <walraven@multiwareinc.com>
    License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
    Notes: primary
    Citation: Missing
    Methods: The existing case and death raw data is cleaned slightly for anomolies, then is fit with model consisting of one or more skewed gaussian distributions using a distribution model I developed. The model estimates the height, position, and spread of each peak that appears in the data and can be used to project ahead with reasonable results. This is an emperical approach that makes no epidemiological assumptions but simply fits the existing data as well as possible. The model assumes that the effects of current interventions are reflected in the observed data and that those effects will continue going forward.
    Home: http://rwalraven.com/COVID19
    Auxiliary data: Missing

    Forecasts (78)

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